Is 2020 a Youth Market for Dems?: Liner Notes

Another new column up at The Federalist today, titled “Democrats’ 2020 Candidate Options Don’t Look Good (Or Young).” That headline is the “glass half-empty” version of the thesis, which is that there’s a good chance Democrats will nominate a younger, lesser-known candidate for president in 2020 — and might do well with it.

What got left out? Oddly, I didn’t notice Dan McLaughlin’s chart of the ages of 2020 hopefuls vs Democrats elected president omitted JFK and Bill Clinton, whose inclusion would have underscored the point. JFK was 43.45 years old at his inauguration; Clinton was 46.42 years old at his. (In fairness, JFK ran against Nixon, who was only 4 years older than JFK, so the generational shift in 1960 was a lock).

I also might have elaborated upon — rather than just linking — Henry Olsen’s look at Millennial voting patterns by race.  The GOP’s “millennial gap” is really with white millennials; it basically disappears with non-white millennials. But as Olsen notes, what that really means is that the GOP needs to do better with minorities. The current version of the party does not seem too interested in that (and has been mostly been talk before that). I do not believe that demographics are destiny, but a GOP that actively repels minorities may help make it happen for Dems.

Lastly, I am skeptical of some of the broader cultural claims advanced by Peter Hamby in the Vanity Fair article which inspired the column. I try to avoid imputing motives to authors, but the subtext at Vanity Fair seems to be the “culture war” frame. It seems like Hamby thinks Trump “owns the culture” and it must be “won back.”  My column asserts that the very notion of a “culture war” conflicts with the idea of a single culture.  And to the extent we’re talking about pop culture, it remains very much in the hands of progressives, which is part of How We Got Trump.  In any event, our current cultural politics — and the brawling over the Clintons in 1992 — suggests any generational election will be pretty ugly.  Throw in the demographic shift on top of it and it could be even uglier.

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Macron’s Malaise Speech: Liner Notes

I have a new column up at The Federalist today, titled “Macron’s Address On France’s Populist Revolt Was Not Ready For Primetime.” This was a requested update on a story you may have noticed I have been following.

Given the “breaking” nature of the news, the column was written on a de facto deadline. As such, there’s not a ton that was left out for space considerations. It is perhaps additionally notable that Macron’s response underscores the degree to which he has been governing as a president of his country’s cities to the detriment of most everywhere else. It is understandable that he would focus on the violent protesters in Paris. Yet the remainder of his primetime address Monday revealed the degree to which he does not understand the yellow vests outside Paris. Otherwise, he would not be proposing to go on a listening tour around the country.

The speech also seemed to ramble in parts, which is odd given that he took 10 days to go on television. Some of that delay was probably a recognition that he is the face representing the people’s discontent more than the face of a solution. But a cynic may wonder whether the delay was partly based in the hope that the holidays would help diffuse the public anger at his government.

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Macron Retreats From Green Tax Revolt: Liner Notes

I have another column up at The Federalist today, “Macron Slouches From Denial To Bargaining Over France’s Carbon Tax Revolts.” It’s largely an elaboration of my prior Liner Notes on this story. There is a bit more about how the media is being forced to look again at Macron’s climate change agenda, but largely remains in denial about the type of re-think they need if they want to avoid failure of the sort they have had in France and other counties.

Since I submitted the column, Macron has retreated further, from suspending the fuel tax hikes to abandoning them before another weekend of protests.  France’s left-wing parties claim this is too little, too late and are trying to get other parties interested in a vote of no confidence in Macron’s government, which still seems unlikely.  These developments don’t significantly change my analysis of the problem for Macron (and hardcore greens everywhere).

What got left out for space? Noah C. Rothman sees the “yellow jackets” as a movement closer to our Occupy movement than the Tea Party and concludes “Conservatives do not have a dog in this hunt.” I would say that’s only half-right. He’s relying on Jacobin for his take on the movement, when the reality seems to be that the demands from some factions of the largely leaderless movement are opposed by other factions. He’s right that in general, this is a populist movement and as such will usually wind up with a left-leaning position on economics.

I would disagree that conservatives don’t have a dog in the hunt. We certainly have an interest in the success or failure of governing institutions.  We also have an interest insofar as the Republican Party (still the closest thing to a vessel for conservatism in America) is currently headed by a populist who has a similar problem to Macron — or the opposite problem, depending on how you view it.  Macron has largely governed for the cities and alienated the rest of his people, culminating in the current crisis.  Trump has largely focused on rural areas and is largely unpopular everywhere else, resulting in large midterm losses for the GOP everywhere except the Senate, where the party underperformed on the most favorable map since perhaps the 1920s.  Conservatives need a GOP that is at least popular enough outside farm communities to maintain its majority.  Macron has the reverse problem, but the lesson for conservatives regarding coalition politics should be similar.

As an aside, I have finished recapping Battlestar Galactica for The Federalist and have been asked to tackle Batman: The Animated Series, just released on Blu-ray and available through the new DC Universe streaming app.  I won’t be promoting these recaps through the blog, so you need not fear for your email inbox.  But I’ll also be using the recaps to think more about this iconic figure, so if you’re a Bat-fan (or have kids who are), you may want to check them out.

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Liberal Elites’ Climate Obsession Hurts Democrats: Liner Notes

Another new column up at The Federalist today, titled “The Liberal Elites Driving Climate Change Hysteria Are Hurting Democrats’ Electoral Chances,” which is fairly explanatory.  In my prior Liner Notes about the French riots sparked by green taxes, I noted that one thing left out of my last column was the role of the American media’s blind spot on the political realities of the climate change issue. I got to expand on that today, though my argument is more about the media as a symptom rather than a cause of the blindness (it’s arguably more of a vicious circle at this point).

Given that today’s column is based on something from my prior Liner Notes, not much got left out for space. But in the interim, a third weekend of street protests in France turned violent and included the vandalization of the Arc de Triomphe.  Despite making noises about negotiations the Macron government contemplates no significant change from its present course on climate change. Indeed, in the middle of this tumult, Macron confirmed that the government would be shuttering 14 nuclear power plants, albeit not on the originally announced timetable (which had been magical thinking anyway).  The idea is to rely more on wind and solar, though Macron admits these are “intermittent” sources of power.  He is hoping innovation solves that problem. And I would agree that innovation is probably how we get climate change solutions over the next 100 years.  But it seems foolish to bet on that in a 10-20 year timeframe, let alone to do so while the government is raising the cost of living for ordinary people with green taxes.

Macron governing as though his constituency is Juliette Binoche instead of the middle and working classes.  The results are a tiny approval rating and street riots, which are attracting all sorts of political factions to start attaching their demands.  Things seem likely to get worse before they improve.  There should be a lesson here for the Democratic Party, whose activists and media seem bent on pushing a “Green New Deal” based on the same fantasy of quickly phasing out fossil fuels.  In reality, it’s been a fossil fuel that has America reducing carbon emissions better than countries like France.

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France’s Populist Revolt Against Green Taxes: Liner Notes

I have a new column up at The Federalist: “Green Taxes Spark A Populist Revolt In France Injuring 750, Killing Two.” Although it’s mostly about how the Macron government’s climate agenda (and the more extreme version being pushed in Paris) has sparked a new type of political unrest in France, it’s also about the way in which the English-language press seems to want to avoid the green roots of the protests. That’s partly a story about media bias, but more about the elitist groupthink on climate change generally.

Indeed, what gets left out of the column for space is perhaps some nuance. I hope it’s still clear that the column is more a cautionary tale in the mold of “How You Got Trump” than an endorsement of populism. But anyone who gets reactions to their writing on social media has to worry about not being completely blunt. Also, if greens want to blame the public for their seeming apathy, I can almost sympathize; they have the same sorts of problems fiscal conservatives have in trying to convince people that the accumulation of debt in the public and private sectors is a problem for which the bill will someday come due. That said, people in the public square have to deal with the public as it is, not as they wish it was.

A further aspect omitted here would have focuses on the American media, which during the post-Thanksgiving period has criticized the Trump administration for releasing a climate report on Black Friday and debated how much more hysterical they should be about climate change. And nowhere in that discussion is a mention that our oldest ally has people setting the streets of Paris ablaze over the hysteria of green bureaucrats. Nor is there any recognition that despite the relative levels of hysteria, it’s France whose emissions won’t meet its commitments under the Paris accord, while the U.S. will probably do a better job of hitting the target under an agreement from which we have withdrawn. The green blob seems to have less self-reflection than a vampire, perhaps suggesting this is more about social signaling than the search for consensus solutions — which the people seem to notice.

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Why Should You Care About the “Booty Kings”?: Liner Notes

So, a new column up today at The Federalist, titled “SNL’s ‘Booty Kings’ Video Mocks Sexist Rappers—And Their Woke Critics.” The lede gives you the hook:

Pete Davidson’s apology to Congressman-elect Dan Crenshaw for mocking his war wound provided last weekend’s “Saturday Night Live” its viral moment (and rightly so). However, this overshadowed one of the sharpest segments SNL has produced since the 2016 presidential campaign.

The segment is a mock rap video entitled ‘Permission’ ” about the “Booty Kings” — a pair of rappers who are trying to get woke.

As the title of the column suggests, sexist rappers are the primary — and rich — target of the satire here.  Yet I suspect that the laughs also come from the fact that rappers trying to be woke strikes people as just plain silly, which says something additional about the culture, not only the audience for this type of rap, but those on a crusade to stamp it out.

What got left out for space? Tons. The woke ideal presented is consent, and obviously one could write many columns about consent being a necessary but insufficient basis for how society thinks about sex.  A longer column would delve further into the (barely) subtexts here about subjects like tolerating intolerance and the right to be wrong,the ways in which we struggle against or live in an uneasy relationship with the vices we recognize we have.  Or there could have been more on the relative merits of society evolving in a more gradual, Burkean fashion versus a more revolutionary imposition of cultural norms.  Or perhaps I could have written more about art versus propaganda, in the sense that the response to this video is both complex and visceral in ways that are not easily communicated in print, let alone evoked in a mass audience.  Or I could have focused more on how this mock video, like the “Black Jeopardy” sketch referenced in the column, not only speaks to populism and class, but to the instability of the major party coalitions in this more populist moment.

Of course, there’s also the old saying that a joke is like a frog: you can dissect it, but it tends to die on the table when you do.  In this case, however, I think there are enough layers to the comedy that it survives (and even resists) that dissection.

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2020 Democrats Without a Map: Liner Notes

I have a new column up at The Federalist today, “The 2018 Midterm Results Leave Democrats Without A Roadmap For 2020.” It’s consistent with my pre-election “prediction” that “no one will learn anything” from the 2018 midterms, now bolstered by the results. The Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter has a piece up today making the roughly similar point that this week did not produce a “frontrunner” for Dems.

Since submitting my piece, it appears we will get a recount in Florida and possibly Georgia.  I tend to doubt any change in the results, but even if there were, my analysis wouldn’t change much. That’s not partisanship or confirmation bias. Nate Silver, making an adjustment for uncontested 2018 races, produces a possible 2020 map where Georgia remains red and Florida remains Florida. A Dem win in one of those two states might affect their internal debate or struggle over choosing a presidential nominee, but it probably should not for the reasons discussed in the column and just stated here.

An additional point about the identity politics faction of the party was left out of my column for reasons of space and flow.  I refer to “identity politics––or, to put it less pejoratively, representational politics.”  That last phrase is there because it’s not like African-Americans like Stacey Abrams don’t have a point in their critique of their party.  Georgia Democrats have offered up nepotistic candidates who were the relatives of old white Dems who won in GA once upon a time — and they’ve lost quite a bit.  Given that history, it’s entirely rational to at least try a different approach. Laboratories of democracy, let 100 flowers bloom, etc.

I also could have written more about how Beto O’Rourke, for all of his faults, exposed some underlying issues in Texas.  Fortunately, John Daniel Davidson made that dive in a piece at The Fed yesterday.  I would add that some of the problem in Texas was weak candidates with scandal baggage — but that too is a symptom of an overly complacent state party.

I could have further analyzed Sherrod Brown — one of the few Dems who won a marquee race — as an exception to what was otherwise a bad cycle for Dems in Ohio.  The Buckeye state seems like it may swing further right (at least during the Trump era) in a way that’s more like neighboring West Virginia than neighboring Pennsylvania.  The fact that PA Dems had a very good night (not to mention MI, WI, even IA and MN) should serve as a warning to the GOP, but they weren’t the focus of today’s’ column.

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My Midterm Prediction?


Okay, I’m kidding, but taking Mr. T out of context is vague enough that it probably works as a midterm prediction.

Slightly more seriously, I did want to keep to my habit of writing about elections beforehand, to help keep myself honest. So my midterm prediction is this this: No one will learn anything.

The reason that’s a prediction rather than a mere statement of fact is that we could have a Truly Unexpected Result. Democrats could pick up over 58 seats, or fewer than 20. The voters’ overall verdict would be clear beyond spin in those scenarios. But they are unlikely scenarios.

Absent an outlier result, we are likely to see something between a Blue Wave (not tsunami) and the GOP narrowly holding onto the House.  If the results land closer to one or the other end of that spectrum, the “losing” side’s activists will go into Green Lantern mode. “If only my party had fought harder, pursued my agenda, things would have been different,” they will say. “We were stabbed in the back.  If only those squishy establishment figures had clapped harder, Tinker Bell would be alive today.” Conversely, the “winning” side will tend to believe that their hyperbole and hysterics were validated by the voters before waiting to see whether the data bear it out.

To demonstrate how the midterm commentary is going and will go astray, consider Republican Trump critic Bret Stephens. He notes that: wages are rising, unemployment is at a multi-decade low, ISIS is largely beaten, Iran seems contained, Russia was sanctioned (rather than coddled), and Dems overreached in attacking SCOTUS nominee (now Justice) Brett Kavanaugh. His conclusion? “Democrats should be walking away with the midterms. That they are not is because they have consistently underestimated the president’s political gifts, while missing the deeper threat his presidency represents.”

If you hadn’t noticed, “Democrats should be walking away with the midterms” does not exactly follow from the political fundamentals Stephens catalogued.  “Jobs, Not Mobs” is a slogan with two components.  Attributing the GOP’s results solely to Pres. Trump’s culture war is the sort of thing one might expect more from Steve Bannon than Bret Stephens, but here we are.  Conversely, it would probably be a mistake to attribute the Dems’ results solely to their frothing anger when leadership has tried to keep their candidates focused on issues like health insurance.  If we do not get a Truly Unexpected Result, untangling these factors will take more work than much of the commentariat seems willing to do.

Beyond activists confirming their biases, let’s consider the Conventional Wisdom of Dems winning 30-40 seats in the House, along with a number of governorships and statehouses — while the GOP picks up one or two seats in the Senate. Because it’s the CW, there may be a tendency to be blasé about it.  But the GOP lost 31 House seats in 2006, burdened with the Bush administration’s handling of the Iraq War, Hurricane Katrina, etc. To lose that many seats in 2018, amid peace and prosperity — and to gain only two Senate seats with the most GOP-friendly Senate map in recent memory — should be seen as a rebuke of Pres. Trump, while keeping in mind that Clinton and Obama got their rebukes (and W didn’t in 2002 mostly because of 9/11).

Despite those rebukes, Clinton and Obama went on to re-election, which is why there’s a limit to learning things from midterms, even a big wave election.  That said, Obama was the first president since Washington to get re-elected with less support than his initial election.  Trump, having threaded an Electoral College needle in 2016, has less margin for losing votes and yet continues to play to his biggest fans.  Nevertheless, even if that strategy were to fail tomorrow, he could still win 2020 if Dems learn enough of the wrong lessons from these midterms.

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Harvard’s Dishonest Affirmative Action Fuels Populism: Liner Notes

I start the week with another column at The Federalist: “How Harvard’s Dishonesty About Its Racial Discrimination Will Fuel Populism.” It’s an example of this sideblog helping me workshop things, as the basic idea comes from the liner notes to my previous column.

Not much got left out for space, per se.  I wound up only touching lightly on Harvard’s history of discriminating against Jews because really digging into that debate would have required another column, and perhaps more. Ultimately, Harvard’s current defenders reject the comparison primarily because the discrimination here is ostensibly well-intentioned. The question of whether such intentions eventually pave the road to Hell in this context is an important one, but ultimately beyond the scope of the column. In A Few Good Men, Col. Natahan Jessup has an argument to make about the value of a “code red.” He had lost that argument and continued to do what he wanted secretly. Anyone who has seen the movie or the play realizes that’s a problem.

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The Unpopularity of Racial Preferences in College Admissions: Liner Notes

In a busy week, I have yet another column up at The Federalist, “Why The Media Will Never Tell You 85 Percent Of Americans Oppose Race-Based College Admissions.”

The backstory here is mildly amusing. I had written about the Beto hangover as the result of a mini-rant I had circulated by email (knowing there might be interest at the Fed in dunking on Beto). Part of that column relied on the newly-released “Hidden Tribes” study, coverage of which was generating traffic, particularly at The Atlantic. I mostly wrote about the study’s findings on political correctness, with just a line or two on affirmative action.

But before it got published, Joy Pullman’s piece on the study ran, so my working assumption was that my column might not run. And Joy’s column also seemed to generate a lot of traffic. Accordingly, I pitched The Fed on a similar column focused on the study’s equally lopsided finding regarding racial preferences. Now both this column and the Beto column have run and there is a certain thematic consistency as a result.

What got left out for space? In retrospect, while I use the word “now” in a few places, I probably could have emphasized that race preferences in college admissions have become widely unpopular over the course of the past five years or so. You can tease that out if you construct a timeline of the additional polling Alice Lloyd cited at TWS. Accordingly, the questions I ask about why the policy is unpopular are a bit less rhetorical than some may think. That the policy is now unpopular with many liberals and members of minority groups suggests something more than the rise of white identity politics is at work here, but it’s not clear what has changed. But few are thinking about it because of the media bias at work here. (I’m still less enthused than some — and less enthused than I once was — in the typical media bias rant. But it is interesting in cases where the media seems out of step even with typical liberals.)

Also, since writing the column, Avik Roy cites a WSJ piece to point out the essential dishonesty of Harvard’s claim that it is simply looking at qualities like applicants’ personalities. In my column, I do try to get at the notion that those who do support these racial preferences would seemingly prefer to do so on grounds the Court has put off-limits. As a result, schools act dishonestly to circumvent the law, while the media acts dishonestly to avoid talking about the dishonesty of the schools.

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